Mahan wants to fix the waste. Steyer just wants to raise taxes.

Matt Mahan is the only candidate saying the obvious thing: California spends $150 billion more per year than it did six years ago without delivering better outcomes. Maybe we should fix that before demanding more money from families already crushed by the highest tax burden in the country.

Here’s what he says:

The choice is stark. One path leads to a doom loop — more taxes, more exodus, less revenue, more taxes. The other leads to a boom loop — accountability, efficiency, trust, prosperity. There’s no middle ground anymore.

The $150 Billion Question Nobody’s Asking

Mahan’s central argument is simple: California today spends nearly $150 billion more per year than it did just six years ago. What did we get for it?

CalMatters reports spending jumped 72% under Newsom while revenues only grew 60%. The state workforce ballooned 28% — from 376,990 to 481,850 employees. And remember Newsom’s $97.5 billion “surplus” in 2022? The one he called the largest in American history? It was an illusion. His administration overestimated revenues by $165 billion over four years.

Archived tweet

There's no doubt that Trump's budget cuts are hurting California families. The question is not if we respond, but how. Our families already face one of the highest state tax burdens in the country. Now, @TomSteyer wants to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on another special election to raise taxes even more. I believe that's the wrong approach. First, the money we spend on special elections would be better used on the things our families need--like healthcare, schools and housing. And I think we need to make government work better before we ask families and small businesses to pay more. California today spends nearly $150 billion more per year than we did just six years ago without delivering better outcomes. We need to go line by line through our budget, measure what works and eliminate what doesn't. We need to root out the fraud, waste and duplication that's built-up in our bureaucracy over decades and hold public agencies accountable for results. And we need to demand real transparency at every step in the process, so we can win back the trust of taxpayers. We clearly need to close tax loopholes, including those that allow the ultra-wealthy to evade taxes at the federal level and loopholes and inequities at the state level. But we need to do it in the right way at the right time. California is facing an affordability crisis. We are competing against 49 other states for economic investment and the workers we need to win the future. Higher state taxes--especially without better results or more transparency from the politicians levying them--only make us more likely to lose. There's no doubt that California's next Governor will need to take action to protect our families from the reckless cruelty coming out of Washington. Where Mr. Steyer and I disagree is that I don't think increasing our already high state tax burden should be our first instinct. Instead, I think it should be our last resort.

Mayor Matt Mahan @MattMahanSJ February 20, 2026

Mahan’s asking what should be the first question: “We need to go line by line through our budget, measure what works and eliminate what doesn’t.” Legislative Analyst Gabe Petek now projects $20-35 billion in annual structural deficits. The money is gone. The accountability never arrived.

Steyer’s $27 Million Performance Art

Tom Steyer’s populism is performance art funded by the very wealth he claims to despise. He’s spent $27 million on attack ads — twice what everyone else in the race combined. Now he wants to spend “hundreds of millions of dollars on another special election to raise taxes even more.”

Mahan’s counter is devastating: that money “would be better used on the things our families need — like healthcare, schools and housing.”

This is what separates Mahan from the field. He’s not running on vibes. He’s running on results. San Jose has achieved a one-third reduction in street homelessness under his leadership. Steyer’s plan? Tax his way to solving problems that Sacramento created through incompetence.

The $240 Billion Firehose

Here’s what nobody in Sacramento wants to discuss: $240 billion per year flows to public employee compensation and benefits. Public sector unions collect $921 million annually — and they use it to control the “management” (elected officials) through political spending. Unlike private sector collective bargaining, where unions negotiate against management, public sector unions pick their own management.

Since collective bargaining was authorized in 1968, services have declined while taxes increased. The imbalance is staggering. Nine figures of spending seems like a lot, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to $240 billion per year firehosed to public sector unions. There needs to be balance. But we are so out of balance.

Mahan is the rare candidate with the guts to say: “We need to root out the fraud, waste and duplication that’s built up in our bureaucracy over decades and hold public agencies accountable for results.”

The Doom Loop vs. The Boom Loop

California already has the nation’s highest unemployment rate, highest homeless population, highest median housing prices, and highest gas and electricity prices (save for Hawaii). Steyer’s answer is more taxes. On people who can leave.

And they are leaving. David Friedberg reports 80-90% of wealth tax targets have already left California or will leave if the ballot measure passes. That’s $2-2.5 trillion in assets. Roughly $20 billion in annual revenue — gone.

Mahan gets it: “We are competing against 49 other states for economic investment and the workers we need to win the future. Higher state taxes — especially without better results or more transparency from the politicians levying them — only make us more likely to lose.”

Steyer wants to tax his way out of a spending problem while the people who actually create wealth flee the state. California doesn’t need another billionaire funding his own populist crusade. It needs a governor who will go line by line through the budget and ask: what are we getting for this?

The boom loop or the doom loop. That’s the choice. There’s no other cavalry coming.