Mahan to CA: Your Billionaire Tax Will Crush the Middle Class

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan just went on national television to deliver a warning Sacramento desperately needs to hear: the so-called “Billionaire Tax” is going to backfire, and working families will pay the price.

Archived tweet

Mayor Matt Mahan, on the so-called "Billionaire Tax": "The unintended consequences of this misguided proposal could be devastating for the state and its working- and middle-class families." https://t.co/2ncFVhc3TL

Back to Basics @BackToBasicsSJ January 09, 2026

The Warning Sacramento Won’t Hear

In his CNBC interview, Mahan laid out the brutal math: when you threaten billionaires with a 5% wealth seizure, they leave. And when they leave, the tax burden doesn’t disappear—it falls on everyone else.

This isn’t speculation. California’s top 1% already pay 46% of state taxes. The top 5% pay 66% combined. What happens when those taxpayers relocate to Texas, Florida, or Nevada? The math doesn’t change—someone still has to fund the state’s bloated budget. That “someone” is you.

The Exodus Is Already Happening

Reports indicate Peter Thiel and Larry Page are among those weighing their exit options. And here’s the kicker: the proposed tax has a retroactive element targeting 2025 residency—meaning even billionaires who’ve already left could be on the hook.

UC Berkeley economist Enrico Moretti warns: “Other examples of wealth taxation tell us that in the end, people relocate. I don’t expect that we will lose every single billionaire, but I think the losses will exceed the benefits.”

The real victims won’t be the billionaires who can afford to move. It will be the startups that won’t form in California, the jobs that won’t exist, and the middle-class taxpayers left holding the bag when Sacramento’s revenue projections come up short.

Why This Matters

Mahan isn’t just any mayor. He’s been a rare voice of sanity in California politics, willing to call out his own party on crime, homelessness, and the cost of living. He’s reportedly considering a run for governor—and takes like this are exactly why California needs him.

Polymarket gives the Billionaire Tax a 31% chance of passing in November. That’s not nothing. If you care about keeping California’s economy competitive and not watching your own tax bill skyrocket, this is the fight to watch.

Follow @garrytan for more.