California’s $1 Trillion Self-Own

This might be the most spectacular unforced error in California’s fiscal history.

Archived tweet

Unfortunate update as of today: More calls from friends. The total wealth that has left California is now $1T. We had $2T of billionaire wealth just a few weeks ago. Now, 50% of that wealth has left - taking their income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, real estate tax revenue and all their staffs (and their salaries and income taxes) with them. In other words, by starting this ill conceived attempt at an asset tax, the California budget deficit will explode. And we still don’t know if the tax will even make the ballot. California billionaires were reliable tax payers - 13.3% every year. They were the sheep you could shear forever. Now California will lose this revenue source FOREVER. Unless this ballot initiative is pulled, we will not stop the billionaire exodus. With no rich people left in California, the middle class will have to foot the bill.

Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath January 11, 2026

The exodus continues to accelerate. What started as a trickle has become a flood. First it was $700 billion. Now it’s $1 trillion—half of all billionaire wealth in California, gone in weeks.

The Google Founders Lead the Way

The symbolism couldn’t be more devastating. Sergey Brin—co-founder of Google, the company that put Silicon Valley on the map—is cutting ties with California. In the 10 days before Christmas, an entity connected to Brin terminated or moved 15 California LLCs out of the state.

Archived tweet

NEWS: Google co-founder Sergey Brin is cutting ties with California. In the 10 days before Christmas, an entity connected to Brin terminated or moved 15 California LLCs that oversee some of his business interests or investments out of the state. With @RMac18 + @hknightsf. https://t.co/BcwpJcGCfg

Teddy Schleifer @teddyschleifer January 09, 2026

Both Google co-founders are now reducing their California footprint. Larry Page. Sergey Brin. The men who built one of the most valuable companies on Earth, right here in the Bay Area. A proposition that wants to seize 50% of their assets is some real crazy stuff—and they’re responding exactly as any rational person would.

The Math Doesn’t Lie

Here’s the brutal reality that Sacramento refuses to acknowledge: California’s top 1% pay 46% of state taxes. The top 5% pay 66%. These weren’t people dodging their obligations—they were paying 13.3% income tax every year. Reliable. Predictable. “The sheep you could shear forever,” as Chamath put it.

Now that’s gone. Forever.

The ballot initiative hasn’t even qualified yet, and the damage is already catastrophic. UC Berkeley economist Enrico Moretti told the SF Standard: “This is initially great news for Texas and Florida. Other examples of wealth taxation tell us that in the end, people relocate. I think the losses will exceed the benefits.”

A Pirate Wires poll of the largest billionaire Signal chat found 70% of California billionaires say they will leave if the ballot prop passes. And it’s not just billionaires—the exodus is spreading to founders, executives, and anyone with assets that could be targeted.

Who Pays When the Rich Leave?

Everyone. That’s the answer Sacramento doesn’t want you to hear. With the state budget already based on wishful thinking, losing half the wealth tax base—before collecting a single dollar—means only two options remain: cut spending dramatically or raise taxes on the middle class.

Guess which one is “much simpler than the former”?

The architects of this wealth tax quietly amended language that could permanently end founder-controlled startups in California. The Tax Foundation analysis shows the effective rate is far higher than the stated 5% due to valuation methods that break up controlling interests. This isn’t just a tax—it’s a technology industry kill switch.

Where is the Governor? Where are our leaders? Tomorrow’s tech giants won’t be in California in 10 years or less if this continues.

Follow @garrytan for more.